If Trump continues to burn down the institutions that made America the greatest democracy in the world, I would think (actually more like Hope) that the electorate would wake up and vote blue. Will voters ever figure out that the GOP are just a bunch of puppets for Orangehead to manipulate???
If the economy continues to slow down in the next few years, and Trump doubles down on tariffs then the political climate for Republicans will be much worse. Dems might have a chance at re-taking the chamber, or at least getting it 50/50 if a recession happens. This’ll set them up nicely for 2028. Purely hypothetical of course.
Yeah, this is a good way of thinking about it. Dems will most likely gain seats in 2026, but 2028 is really the year that the Senate could flip blue. There are easier states for Dems to target in 2028, like Wisconsin, than in 2026.
Agreed. 2026 is likely the year the Dems re-take the House. There's just not much margin for them to take the Senate with the seats that are up unless something drastically shifts in voting patterns.
I personally think Collins is very vulnerable, but still has strengths as a long-time incumbent. I think Tillis is on stronger footing, because North Carolina is the opposite of New Hampshire, in that it votes Democratic at the state-level but not the federal level. I think Ohio is gone for Democrats statewide for the foreseeable future, as Southeast Ohio in particular has completely gone red.
Good points all around, and yeah, the particular states that have Senate races next year are just all tough for Democrats, even though quite a few of them were still competitive a decade ago.
Collins could definitely be vulnerable, but so far, she has played her cards fairly well, opposing certain Trump nominees and being critical of DOGE. I don't get the sense that too many Democrats are eager to challenge her.
Same opinion as Vallabh, and I think Collins has overreached on confirming Gabbard etc and almost all Trump nominees save Hegseth. As a multiple term incumbent, I don't think it'd be easy to oust her, but given North Carolina has been close but no cigar for Dems sans the Gubernatorial races in the last decade and a half I'd rather bet on ousting Collins since she's never had to run in a strong Dem midterm and in a Blue state.
I think Collins will be more vulnerable than in the past. In the past, people could vote for her thinking she was independently-minded. She's not. She supports Trump on 99.9% of what he wants and confirmed virtually all of the insane people he nominated. There's no material difference policy-wise or vote-wise to having Collins over a MAGA lunatic in that seat.
I agree, the argument against her would be very logical and sound to make IF Dems play the card well-- so far, not looking good early on, but we'll see: they better change.
Great analysis, Brad. Will be interesting to see how the economy performs over the next 2 years, probably will be the major factor pushing these races left or right. I guess the real question is will Dems win enough seats in ‘26 to set them up with a good chance to retake Senate in ‘28.
At this moment in time, I agree that 52-48 is the most likely outcome. The map just isn't particularly favorable to a senate blue wave given the states and the senators who hold those seats. I appreciate the breakdown to just 5 most likely switches for contextual purposes. As other commenters are saying, it's not impossible that any goodwill Trump had with low-info voters in a Presidential year is burned and does not translate to the midterms. Fingers crossed lol
I think 52-48 to begin as well, but with Maine flipping and North Carolina staying Red so far in reverse.
Cornyn will be more vulnerable if Trump proves toxic in Texas as he did in 2018 (I bet he is in 2026), still a big reach, but he hurt Cruz in 2018 unlike aiding him in 2024 by all means and I think he'll be poison again as he governs.
I don’t know. If he would’ve shown some comprehension of what was to come, then yes, I feel it would’ve been close. Capito, Justice and Miller are all bootlickers and are contributing to the downfall of this country.
Hello, Cheryl, West Virginia could elect a moderate Democrat, imho, because I saw a recording of a white civil service worker who was fired, arbitrarily, by Musk's slash and burn approach. She and other civil servants were given only a few minutes to clean out their personal items. She was crying as she left and said, " We knew people would get fired, but I didn't think he would hurt us!" As a Trump voter, she thought they were immune, and West Virginia has a disproportionate number of civil service employees for the size of their state's population. Just sayin'...
WV could, but I don’t see it happening. It seems they are completely entrenched in maga. I know veterans who, even after the illegal VA firings and cuts to services, still support the felon. I just don’t understand their thinking on this.
It would be interesting if Beto ran against Cornyn next year. He came close to winning against Ted Cruz in 2018, though Allred was also an overperformer last fall.
Mr Van Arnum, imho, Cornyn would be vulnerable against Beto O'Roarke in a Senate contest. He's very well liked and was cheated out of the governor race by Abbott and Texas AG Paxton, who admitted to dumping thousands of ballots from Harris County (Houston) which leans Democratic. Texas politics is so corrupt that the Texas House impeached Paxton, but the Texas Senate acquitted him, just like Trump. Of course, Harlan Crowe, Clarence Thomas' benefactor, could pay off everyone involved again. After all, Thomas' decisions in SCOTUS cases are like those of a man of white privilege.
It should be a good year for Democrats if we are still in possession of a free press and fair elections. It's unclear that will be the case with Trump smashing down on free speech and breaking laws and constitutional provisions with impunity.
That said, assuming a normal year here in Georgia, Ossoff has done a great job as a senator and is relatively well-liked, but if he's running against Kemp, he's toast. It won't be that close.
If, however, the MAGA primary voters opt for a Marjorie Taylor Greene type instead of Kemp or if Kemp opts out with an eye on 2028, then Ossoff will have a strong shot at holding the seat. We will also have a governor's race on the same ballot and that will have impact. Kemp can't run again, but Georgia generally elects Republican governors. Some big Democratic names like Keisha Lance Bottoms and Lucy McBath are exploring a run but I'm not sure they can win statewide in Georgia just yet. Just ask two-time statewide loser Stacey Abrams.
Hi Bill, really appreciate your thoughts on Georgia, and everything you said is spot on! Just curious, do you think Jason Carter would be a good nominee for governor next year? He came surprisingly close in 2014, a lousy year for Dems.
Hey, thanks! I don't know much about him. We moved to Georgia in 2016, so I missed that one. I did see him during the Jimmy Carter funeral services though. I think he could be formidable. It's going to depend on who the Republicans nominate for senate/governor since it is the same ballot. If Kemp is running for senate, he likely crushes Ossoff and that can also lift a normie Rep candidate for governor. If Kemp opts out and we are looking at generic Republicans, it's going to come down to candidate quality and national trends--it will be close.
Dems best hope is that some crazed MAGA types like MTG get the nomination for one or both. It's why Warnock was able to get re-elected. Both seats are going to be uphill for Democrats unless there's a massively historic swing to Dems in 2026 in response to Trump.
I'd like to see that, too. Wish I knew who the Dan Osborn equivalent was in Kansas; an overperformance like his in Nebraska last fall would probably flip Kansas, which is the bluer state.
Mr Van Arnum, if the Democrats get their act together, they all ought to be running on " It's the economy, stupid" and " We don't fire civil servants and kill the economy to give tax cuts to billionaires, stupid." What Bernie Sanders is doing right now should be the game plan of every Democrat. Between Fox and Sinclair owned TV stations, MAGAs have swallowed the lies that Musk is cutting government waste and fraud, although no financial audits have been done of any agency or department. Red states will be especially hard hit.
This is somewhat pessimistic. I'll be surprised if Collins can win again. She'll be 73 and she's burned her moderate credibility. She relies on lots of independent and some Democratic support.
But yeah, Democrats have a lot of work to do if they want to knock off a third Senator and neither Maine and North Carolina are gimmes. If they can't win Michigan, they have huge problems, but Georgia is going to be very competitive.
Hey Conor, I really appreciate the comment. I am indeed pessimistic, but if, say, Sherrod Brown announced tomorrow that he was running, or Collins got a decent Dem challenger, I'd quickly change my tune. Maine and Ohio are basically Senate seats #49 and #50, but I just haven't seen Democrats treating them as such.
Oddly enough, my post about the House from last week is, if anything, much too optimistic. Structurally, Dems have a lot to be happy about with their House coalition, even as the long-term Senate picture for them is rough.
Just to pick one who really stands out to me, in Iowa’s 2nd House district, Kevin Techau is running to unseat Ashley Hinson, who won by about 16 points last fall. That’s a tough margin to overcome, but Techau has deep roots in northeast Iowa, and is a veteran. He also generally comes off as a moderate. Basically, he has several of the traits that electoral overperformers tend to have. It should be a close race.
If Trump continues to burn down the institutions that made America the greatest democracy in the world, I would think (actually more like Hope) that the electorate would wake up and vote blue. Will voters ever figure out that the GOP are just a bunch of puppets for Orangehead to manipulate???
If the economy continues to slow down in the next few years, and Trump doubles down on tariffs then the political climate for Republicans will be much worse. Dems might have a chance at re-taking the chamber, or at least getting it 50/50 if a recession happens. This’ll set them up nicely for 2028. Purely hypothetical of course.
Yeah, this is a good way of thinking about it. Dems will most likely gain seats in 2026, but 2028 is really the year that the Senate could flip blue. There are easier states for Dems to target in 2028, like Wisconsin, than in 2026.
Agreed. 2026 is likely the year the Dems re-take the House. There's just not much margin for them to take the Senate with the seats that are up unless something drastically shifts in voting patterns.
As of today, agree with you. sox months out, who knows.
Susan Collins’ 40 point over performance in 2008 is an insane stat. Good find on that one. The world we grew up in no longer exists.
Mr Neuman, I'm not sure Collins realizes we are in different times!
I personally think Collins is very vulnerable, but still has strengths as a long-time incumbent. I think Tillis is on stronger footing, because North Carolina is the opposite of New Hampshire, in that it votes Democratic at the state-level but not the federal level. I think Ohio is gone for Democrats statewide for the foreseeable future, as Southeast Ohio in particular has completely gone red.
Link: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-end-of-the-line-for-red-state-senate-democrats/
Good points all around, and yeah, the particular states that have Senate races next year are just all tough for Democrats, even though quite a few of them were still competitive a decade ago.
Collins could definitely be vulnerable, but so far, she has played her cards fairly well, opposing certain Trump nominees and being critical of DOGE. I don't get the sense that too many Democrats are eager to challenge her.
Same opinion as Vallabh, and I think Collins has overreached on confirming Gabbard etc and almost all Trump nominees save Hegseth. As a multiple term incumbent, I don't think it'd be easy to oust her, but given North Carolina has been close but no cigar for Dems sans the Gubernatorial races in the last decade and a half I'd rather bet on ousting Collins since she's never had to run in a strong Dem midterm and in a Blue state.
I think Collins will be more vulnerable than in the past. In the past, people could vote for her thinking she was independently-minded. She's not. She supports Trump on 99.9% of what he wants and confirmed virtually all of the insane people he nominated. There's no material difference policy-wise or vote-wise to having Collins over a MAGA lunatic in that seat.
I agree, the argument against her would be very logical and sound to make IF Dems play the card well-- so far, not looking good early on, but we'll see: they better change.
Great analysis, Brad. Will be interesting to see how the economy performs over the next 2 years, probably will be the major factor pushing these races left or right. I guess the real question is will Dems win enough seats in ‘26 to set them up with a good chance to retake Senate in ‘28.
At this moment in time, I agree that 52-48 is the most likely outcome. The map just isn't particularly favorable to a senate blue wave given the states and the senators who hold those seats. I appreciate the breakdown to just 5 most likely switches for contextual purposes. As other commenters are saying, it's not impossible that any goodwill Trump had with low-info voters in a Presidential year is burned and does not translate to the midterms. Fingers crossed lol
I think 52-48 to begin as well, but with Maine flipping and North Carolina staying Red so far in reverse.
Cornyn will be more vulnerable if Trump proves toxic in Texas as he did in 2018 (I bet he is in 2026), still a big reach, but he hurt Cruz in 2018 unlike aiding him in 2024 by all means and I think he'll be poison again as he governs.
These magafied idiots here in Red, er, West Virginia will vote for the same do-less magats every single time.
I do wonder how Manchin would have done if he had run for re-election last fall. It probably would've been close.
I don’t know. If he would’ve shown some comprehension of what was to come, then yes, I feel it would’ve been close. Capito, Justice and Miller are all bootlickers and are contributing to the downfall of this country.
Hello, Cheryl, West Virginia could elect a moderate Democrat, imho, because I saw a recording of a white civil service worker who was fired, arbitrarily, by Musk's slash and burn approach. She and other civil servants were given only a few minutes to clean out their personal items. She was crying as she left and said, " We knew people would get fired, but I didn't think he would hurt us!" As a Trump voter, she thought they were immune, and West Virginia has a disproportionate number of civil service employees for the size of their state's population. Just sayin'...
WV could, but I don’t see it happening. It seems they are completely entrenched in maga. I know veterans who, even after the illegal VA firings and cuts to services, still support the felon. I just don’t understand their thinking on this.
Turn Texas Blue forever more!
It would be interesting if Beto ran against Cornyn next year. He came close to winning against Ted Cruz in 2018, though Allred was also an overperformer last fall.
Mr Van Arnum, imho, Cornyn would be vulnerable against Beto O'Roarke in a Senate contest. He's very well liked and was cheated out of the governor race by Abbott and Texas AG Paxton, who admitted to dumping thousands of ballots from Harris County (Houston) which leans Democratic. Texas politics is so corrupt that the Texas House impeached Paxton, but the Texas Senate acquitted him, just like Trump. Of course, Harlan Crowe, Clarence Thomas' benefactor, could pay off everyone involved again. After all, Thomas' decisions in SCOTUS cases are like those of a man of white privilege.
Idaho = maga vs maga
It’s a lost state in all kinds of ways
It should be a good year for Democrats if we are still in possession of a free press and fair elections. It's unclear that will be the case with Trump smashing down on free speech and breaking laws and constitutional provisions with impunity.
That said, assuming a normal year here in Georgia, Ossoff has done a great job as a senator and is relatively well-liked, but if he's running against Kemp, he's toast. It won't be that close.
If, however, the MAGA primary voters opt for a Marjorie Taylor Greene type instead of Kemp or if Kemp opts out with an eye on 2028, then Ossoff will have a strong shot at holding the seat. We will also have a governor's race on the same ballot and that will have impact. Kemp can't run again, but Georgia generally elects Republican governors. Some big Democratic names like Keisha Lance Bottoms and Lucy McBath are exploring a run but I'm not sure they can win statewide in Georgia just yet. Just ask two-time statewide loser Stacey Abrams.
Hi Bill, really appreciate your thoughts on Georgia, and everything you said is spot on! Just curious, do you think Jason Carter would be a good nominee for governor next year? He came surprisingly close in 2014, a lousy year for Dems.
Hey, thanks! I don't know much about him. We moved to Georgia in 2016, so I missed that one. I did see him during the Jimmy Carter funeral services though. I think he could be formidable. It's going to depend on who the Republicans nominate for senate/governor since it is the same ballot. If Kemp is running for senate, he likely crushes Ossoff and that can also lift a normie Rep candidate for governor. If Kemp opts out and we are looking at generic Republicans, it's going to come down to candidate quality and national trends--it will be close.
Dems best hope is that some crazed MAGA types like MTG get the nomination for one or both. It's why Warnock was able to get re-elected. Both seats are going to be uphill for Democrats unless there's a massively historic swing to Dems in 2026 in response to Trump.
I know its wishful thinking, but would love if KS Dems could make Roger Marshall sweat.
I'd like to see that, too. Wish I knew who the Dan Osborn equivalent was in Kansas; an overperformance like his in Nebraska last fall would probably flip Kansas, which is the bluer state.
Mr Van Arnum, if the Democrats get their act together, they all ought to be running on " It's the economy, stupid" and " We don't fire civil servants and kill the economy to give tax cuts to billionaires, stupid." What Bernie Sanders is doing right now should be the game plan of every Democrat. Between Fox and Sinclair owned TV stations, MAGAs have swallowed the lies that Musk is cutting government waste and fraud, although no financial audits have been done of any agency or department. Red states will be especially hard hit.
This is somewhat pessimistic. I'll be surprised if Collins can win again. She'll be 73 and she's burned her moderate credibility. She relies on lots of independent and some Democratic support.
But yeah, Democrats have a lot of work to do if they want to knock off a third Senator and neither Maine and North Carolina are gimmes. If they can't win Michigan, they have huge problems, but Georgia is going to be very competitive.
Hey Conor, I really appreciate the comment. I am indeed pessimistic, but if, say, Sherrod Brown announced tomorrow that he was running, or Collins got a decent Dem challenger, I'd quickly change my tune. Maine and Ohio are basically Senate seats #49 and #50, but I just haven't seen Democrats treating them as such.
Oddly enough, my post about the House from last week is, if anything, much too optimistic. Structurally, Dems have a lot to be happy about with their House coalition, even as the long-term Senate picture for them is rough.
I haven’t read your House post yet. Have you found any interesting challengers for the House or Senate?
Just to pick one who really stands out to me, in Iowa’s 2nd House district, Kevin Techau is running to unseat Ashley Hinson, who won by about 16 points last fall. That’s a tough margin to overcome, but Techau has deep roots in northeast Iowa, and is a veteran. He also generally comes off as a moderate. Basically, he has several of the traits that electoral overperformers tend to have. It should be a close race.