The Key Senate Races of 2026
An early assessment of the most competitive Senate seats in 2026.
In just 600 or so days, 35 Senate seats will be up for election. This group of Senators last faced voters in 2020, in a political environment that was somewhat Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so. Prior to that, in 2014, this class of Senators ran for election in a strong midterm year for Republicans, one that saw nine Senate seats flip red, a reflection of how overextended Democrats were from their widespread gains in 2008.
Given the usual pattern of midterm elections breaking against the party in power, 2026 could provide Democrats an opportunity to claw back ground in the Senate. But at the same time, most of the Senate seats up for election next fall happen to be in uncompetitive states.
The long-term trend has been towards fewer competitive Senate seats, a testament to polarization, and the growing correlation between presidential and Senate voting. As more states have become solidly Democratic or Republican in presidential elections, so too have their Senate seats.
As recently as 2000, the epitome of a 50-50 election, North Dakota was still electing a Democratic Senator (and continued doing so up until 2018), while Vermont elected a Republican Senator to his third term (though he left the party a year later). But that level of ticket-splitting is long gone, and it should come as no surprise that in 2026, nearly all of the Senators up for re-election represent a state that their party won at the presidential level last fall.
For today, I’ve picked the five races that I think form the core of the 2026 Senate playing field. These are by no means the only potentially competitive races, but if any Senate seats were to flip in either direction next year, it would most likely be one (or more) of these.
I’ll go in order of partisanship, from the most Democratic state to the most Republican, based on the 2024 presidential results.
Maine:
As the only state on this list that Harris won last fall, Maine occupies a unique place on the 2026 Senate map. Its incumbent, Susan Collins, has been a fixture in Maine politics for decades, and she’s arguably the most moderate Republican in the Senate, along with Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski.
Just to give a sense of Collins’s crossover appeal, in 2008, even as Obama won Maine by roughly 17 points, Collins won re-election by nearly 23 points. That 40-point overperformance is simply unheard of today. For comparison, last fall, the largest Senate overperformances came from Larry Hogan in Maryland (17 points) and Dan Osborn in Nebraska (14 points), a reminder of how much ticket-splitting has declined, but also, how strong Senate candidates can defy their state’s partisanship to some degree.
In 2020, Collins’s overperformance in Maine was much reduced from 2008, but still substantial enough that she was able to win re-election by over 8 points even as Biden won Maine by 9 points. Maine was among the states where Harris held up relatively well last fall, and it’s by far the bluest state on this list. Even so, Collins is not in as much danger of losing as it may seem.
Jared Golden, a House Democrat who represents the rural, more conservative half of Maine, might be one of the stronger challengers that Collins could face. But even if he or another prominent Maine Democrat decides to run, the race probably leans towards Republicans. Collins has a proven track record, and she made it known last fall that she intends to run for re-election. Notably, Collins has never yet had to run in a strong Democratic midterm year, which 2026 could prove to be.
Michigan:
Back in January, I briefly mentioned how Gary Peters, Michigan’s senior Senator, was in a decent position to win re-election in 2026 if he chose to run. Surprisingly, he announced a few weeks later that he would retire, leaving Michigan with an open Senate race in 2026.
Michigan’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, was quick to remove herself from consideration after Peters’s announcement. For now, Pete Buttigieg, who moved from Indiana to Michigan a few years ago (he lives in Traverse City, in the northwest), seems to be one potential Democratic candidate, as does Mallory McMorrow, a state senator who gave a speech that went viral in 2022. On the Republican side, Mike Rogers, who nearly won his race against Elissa Slotkin last fall, has shown interest in running again.
Regardless of the matchup, Michigan’s Senate race is, in my mind, close to a toss-up. That could change, but the state’s three most recent Senate races provide some context. In 2018, a generally strong midterm year for Democrats, Debbie Stabenow won re-election to her seat by a somewhat modest 6.5 points. In 2020, Peters won by under 2 points, and last year, Slotkin won her Senate race by a fraction of a point.
If Peters were running next fall, this race could have been said to lean towards Democrats, but as an open seat, it will likely come down to the wire.
Georgia:
As with Michigan, Georgia is a state Trump won in 2024 but that has two Democratic Senators. Next fall, it will be Jon Ossoff, Georgia’s 38-year-old senior Senator, up for re-election. He and Raphael Warnock both won their Senate seats in runoff elections at the very beginning of 2021 (Warnock won his first full term in 2022, and won’t have to run again until 2028).
Ossoff is perhaps one of the least visible Democratic Senators, and that’s not meant as criticism. If 2024 taught us anything, it’s that Senators with national profiles tend to underperform. Last fall, Adam Schiff (California), Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts), Josh Hawley (Missouri), and Ted Cruz (Texas) all won by smaller margins than Harris or Trump won their respective states. To my eye, Ossoff doesn’t have any obvious liabilities, and to his benefit, Georgia only shifted modestly towards Trump in 2024.
Ossoff’s single biggest fear would be having to face Brian Kemp, who is currently serving his second term as Georgia’s governor. Since winning the governorship in a close race in 2018, Kemp has seen his approval rating climb, and he is among the nation’s more popular governors.
Unless Ossoff draws a weak opponent, this race has all the trappings of a toss-up. Georgia was among the closest states at the presidential level in 2024, and electorally, Ossoff would seem to be a roughly average incumbent, neither a clear overperformer nor underperformer.
North Carolina:
In 2014, Thom Tillis first won election to North Carolina’s Senate seat, narrowly winning in a strong year for Republicans. In 2020, Tillis had another close race, winning by about 2 points.
Two Senate elections isn’t much of a sample size, but electorally, Tillis strikes me as being a fairly average Republican. In 2020, when his Democratic opponent had a scandal late in the race, Tillis only won by a slightly higher margin than Trump did statewide.
Even though North Carolina is significantly more Republican than Maine, the former is perhaps the easier Senate seat for Democrats to flip, a reminder that not all incumbents are created equal. In fact, North Carolina is arguably the best offensive target for Senate Democrats next fall.
Democrats would have a strong nominee in Roy Cooper, a former two-term governor who just left office at the beginning of this year. But the party has other potential candidates if Cooper decides to pass, and the race will likely end up being competitive almost regardless of the matchup.
Ohio:
Ohio’s Senate race next year will be a special election to fill the vacancy left by JD Vance, who first won his Senate seat in 2022. Jon Husted, who had been serving as Ohio’s lieutenant governor, is now filling Vance’s vacancy, and will almost certainly be the Republican nominee in 2026. Keep in mind, whoever wins this race next fall will have to run again in 2028.
Just to emphasize how much less competitive Ohio is compared to North Carolina, Trump won the latter by about 3 points last fall, but his margin of victory in Ohio was 11 points. That’s not a trivial difference, and it would be somewhat shocking to imagine this seat flipping.
But then, there’s the Sherrod Brown factor. Brown, who first won his Senate seat in 2006, lost his race last fall by just a few points. That was a significant overperformance, given Trump’s double-digit win in Ohio. If Brown were to run next year, the race could perhaps be considered a toss-up, but there’s no indication yet of his plans.
If Brown doesn’t enter the race, other possible Democratic contenders include Tim Ryan, a former member of the House who lost to Vance in 2022, and Greg Landsman, who currently represents the Cincinnati area in the House. However, if we knew right now with certainty that Brown had no interest in running, I probably wouldn’t even have Ohio on this list.
It truly is a sign of the times that only five Senate seats are potentially up for grabs in 2026. It’s a real contrast to 2018, when ten seats could be deemed competitive going into the election.
That being said, there are a handful of Senate races that might become competitive. Last month, we learned that Democrat Tina Smith, Minnesota’s junior Senator since 2018, won’t be running next year. I wouldn’t personally rate Minnesota’s Senate race as a toss-up, but even in a midterm environment that favors Democrats, it could end up being decided by single digits. New Hampshire, another light blue state that will have an open seat, may also see a close race.
Several other Senate races could be competitive in 2026, but are on the periphery of the Senate map for now. Alaska, Florida, and Iowa, all states Trump won by about 13 points last fall, have Senate seats that are likely to remain Republican, though that could change if strong challengers emerge. Similarly, Texas and Montana, which both had close Senate races in 2018, are basically safe for Republicans, but may be worth watching.
I highly recommend checking out 270toWin, a fun little website (with way too many ads) that lets you look at the 2026 Senate map and color it according to your own ratings. If nothing else, the map serves as a reminder that there aren’t too many obvious flips for either party next year. There’s certainly a world in which there’s no net change in the Senate’s composition, which is currently 53-47 in favor of Republicans.
I’ll share my own 2026 Senate predictions, even though I have no business doing this so far in advance. If I had to take a stance on the states listed above, I could envision Democrats flipping North Carolina, defending Georgia/Michigan, and coming up short in Maine/Ohio. As seen below, that would produce a Senate that is closer to parity, with a 52-48 Republican majority.
As we approach next fall, a key metric to watch is the generic ballot, which can give us a sense of the overall political environment. Rather than being asked which candidate they would vote for in a particular matchup, respondents in generic ballot polls share which party they support.
In the months prior to the 2018 midterms, generic ballot polling generally showed Democrats leading Republicans by roughly 7 to 10 points, which turned out to be a good estimate of the final results. In fact, the midterm polling in 2018 was quite accurate, arguably the best year that polling has had in the last decade.
There has already been some generic ballot polling for 2026, but it feels a bit early to read too much into it. For now, special election results might be the better indicator of the political environment. This summer, the special election in upstate New York for a House seat should serve as a helpful gauge, as will this fall’s gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia.
We’ll call it a day there, but if you have thoughts on any of 2026’s Senate races, do share them in the comments, especially if you feel there’s a state I should have mentioned, such as New Mexico or South Carolina.
I personally think Collins is very vulnerable, but still has strengths as a long-time incumbent. I think Tillis is on stronger footing, because North Carolina is the opposite of New Hampshire, in that it votes Democratic at the state-level but not the federal level. I think Ohio is gone for Democrats statewide for the foreseeable future, as Southeast Ohio in particular has completely gone red.
Link: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-end-of-the-line-for-red-state-senate-democrats/
If the economy continues to slow down in the next few years, and Trump doubles down on tariffs then the political climate for Republicans will be much worse. Dems might have a chance at re-taking the chamber, or at least getting it 50/50 if a recession happens. This’ll set them up nicely for 2028. Purely hypothetical of course.