Brad, thank you for this detailed analysis of PA 2024. Your breakdown confirms and emphasizes the national trend. Within rounding error, Trump received the same number of votes winning in 2024 as he did losing in 2020. Harris received many fewer votes than Biden. This suggests (not "proves," but "suggests") a lesser of two evils election, which many of us were expecting by early 2023. The number of ballots that omitted any Presidential vote supports that assessment. The data can't tell us whether voters' dismay was confined to these two candidates or extended to the ever more polarized parties. Deep opinion polling from NORC or Pew might clarify this. Or perhaps 2026 will provide some insight.
Again, thank you for your careful analyses throughout the election process.
Great write up. Looking forward to your insight about the ‘26 senate races. I know the map is not favorable to democrats for a while, but I’m certainly curious about what the process looks like to take back the chamber.
Thanks man, really appreciate the kind words! In 2026, if Dems want a fighting chance to flip the Senate, they've got no choice but to focus on winning tough states like Ohio, Iowa, and even Alaska. Nothing's impossible, and at least Maine/North Carolina are somewhat easy flips.
Very interesting and useful, Brad. Thanks for subscribing to The 435 and I look forward to reading more of Countdown to 2026.
How did you find me? I want to find more Substacks like yours (and mine!).
If you look at his votes, Brian Fitzpatrick is indeed the most moderate Republican in the House. I just mapped out the ideology of every House member according to the DW-NOMINATE algorithm - basically a left-right spectrum with a few tweaks, based on roll call votes - and came up with this:
Democrats left, Republicans right, nothing in the middle. But the two that come closest are Fitzpatrick and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-05), last of the Blue Dogs (almost). Hats off to these two for surviving at a time when the electorate is more polarized than any time since the 1850s. Perez by her fingernails, Fitzpatrick by a good margin.
I found you simply because you left a comment earlier today on Allison's Substack, Known Unknowns! It's one of the very few non-politics Substacks I follow, so it's ironic that I found you there, lol.
One other Substack you might like is The Downballot, though as a heads up, it's stridently liberal. I wish it tried to be more neutral, but its coverage of House races is still top-notch.
Brad, thank you for this detailed analysis of PA 2024. Your breakdown confirms and emphasizes the national trend. Within rounding error, Trump received the same number of votes winning in 2024 as he did losing in 2020. Harris received many fewer votes than Biden. This suggests (not "proves," but "suggests") a lesser of two evils election, which many of us were expecting by early 2023. The number of ballots that omitted any Presidential vote supports that assessment. The data can't tell us whether voters' dismay was confined to these two candidates or extended to the ever more polarized parties. Deep opinion polling from NORC or Pew might clarify this. Or perhaps 2026 will provide some insight.
Again, thank you for your careful analyses throughout the election process.
Regards, Owen
Great write up. Looking forward to your insight about the ‘26 senate races. I know the map is not favorable to democrats for a while, but I’m certainly curious about what the process looks like to take back the chamber.
Thanks man, really appreciate the kind words! In 2026, if Dems want a fighting chance to flip the Senate, they've got no choice but to focus on winning tough states like Ohio, Iowa, and even Alaska. Nothing's impossible, and at least Maine/North Carolina are somewhat easy flips.
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/project-2025-would-fuel-assault-election-officials
Great analysis, Brad!
Thanks Daniel, much appreciated! :)
Beautifully done, Brad. An excellent breakdown of my complicated once home state.
Very interesting and useful, Brad. Thanks for subscribing to The 435 and I look forward to reading more of Countdown to 2026.
How did you find me? I want to find more Substacks like yours (and mine!).
If you look at his votes, Brian Fitzpatrick is indeed the most moderate Republican in the House. I just mapped out the ideology of every House member according to the DW-NOMINATE algorithm - basically a left-right spectrum with a few tweaks, based on roll call votes - and came up with this:
https://www.datawrapper.de/_/gkOqt/?v=2
Democrats left, Republicans right, nothing in the middle. But the two that come closest are Fitzpatrick and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-05), last of the Blue Dogs (almost). Hats off to these two for surviving at a time when the electorate is more polarized than any time since the 1850s. Perez by her fingernails, Fitzpatrick by a good margin.
I found you simply because you left a comment earlier today on Allison's Substack, Known Unknowns! It's one of the very few non-politics Substacks I follow, so it's ironic that I found you there, lol.
One other Substack you might like is The Downballot, though as a heads up, it's stridently liberal. I wish it tried to be more neutral, but its coverage of House races is still top-notch.