2026 Senate Ratings
Control of the Senate is up for grabs this fall. Democrats have a path to a Senate majority, and a 50-50 tie is also a distinct possibility.
Hi everyone, I hope you’re all as excited as I am for the start of spring next month. It has felt like an especially tough winter, for reasons both political and meteorological. But here’s some potentially good news: the midterm elections are now only about 270 days away.
This feels like a good time to write about the Senate, as we’ve had some important developments in the last month. Increasingly, Democrats have a clear (albeit narrow) path to winning a Senate majority this fall. Even the chances of a 50-50 Senate now seem substantially higher than at any point last year.
This fall, 35 Senate seats will be up for election. Only 14 of those seats are competitive to some degree, and today, I’ll go through those races, providing a rating for each.
Alaska:
I’m glad that Alaska happens to be the first state alphabetically, because I truly think it has the most interesting Senate race on this list.
In January, Mary Peltola, who served from 2022 to 2025 in the House as Alaska’s At-Large Representative (the state only has one House seat), announced that she was running for Senate. The news came as a bit of a surprise, as Peltola had previously seemed to be leaning towards running for governor. Her entry into the Senate race is arguably the most important recruitment victory for Democrats so far.
My rating of tossup is perhaps a bit too bullish for Democrats, but I do feel that Alaska is now the party’s most likely flip after North Carolina (I would put Maine third, and Ohio fourth).
Keep in mind that Democrats have a history of overperforming in Senate races in sparsely populated states. Thinking back to 2018, it was Montana and West Virginia that Senate Democrats were able to successfully defend (Florida, Indiana, and Missouri, on the other hand, flipped to Republicans that year). In smaller states, Democratic candidates are better able to differentiate themselves from the national party, and if Peltola’s past elections are any indication, she will almost certainly run well ahead of the baseline for a Democrat in Alaska.
Rating: Tossup
Florida:
Florida is a very tough state for Democrats to compete in, for multiple reasons. Few states have swung away from Democrats in recent years as dramatically as Florida, and it’s also a very expensive state to campaign in. On top of that, its Senate race is actually a special election to fill what would have been the final two years of Marco Rubio’s term, meaning that this seat will be up for election again in 2028. It all adds up to a daunting prospect for Democrats.
No prominent Democrat had entered the race until the very end of January, when Alexander Vindman announced that he was running for this seat. Vindman has already raised a substantial amount of money, and if he emerges as the Democratic nominee, he could make this race somewhat competitive. The Republican incumbent, Ashley Moody, previously served as Florida’s attorney general, and though she won her past elections with relative ease, she might find herself in a more challenging race this fall than she expected.
Rating: Likely Republican
Georgia:
Last spring, when I first wrote about 2026’s Senate races, I mentioned that Jon Ossoff (D) could expect a close race, especially if he were to face Brian Kemp (R), Georgia’s two-term governor. As it turns out, Kemp chose not to challenge Ossoff, and the first-term Senator hasn’t really drawn any notable opponents.
Georgia (along with Michigan) is the closest thing to a 50-50 state on this list, and I wouldn’t go as far as to say that Ossoff has nothing to worry about. But having dodged a challenge from Kemp, Ossoff is in a fairly good position to win a second term this fall.
Rating: Leans Democratic
Iowa:
I find Iowa a tough state to rate. On one hand, Democrats have a real shot at its open Senate seat, which Joni Ernst (R) is leaving behind after two terms. In 2018, Iowa did not have a Senate seat up for election, which means that 2026 will be the best opportunity for Democrats to win a Senate seat there in quite some time.
What makes me slightly pessimistic on Democrats’ chances is that ever since Iowa swung hard to the right in 2016, it hasn’t shown any sign of reverting back to a swing state. In 2024, Trump won the state by 13 points, a true reversal of Iowa’s historic status as a light blue state in presidential elections. Iowa is perhaps the most dramatic example of how thoroughly Trump has realigned the politics of a state.
All that said, Democrats have a few compelling candidates vying for the nomination, and any one of them could make this a close race. Iowa’s primary is not until June, and the contest for the Democratic nomination seems pretty open, but at this moment, Josh Turek, a state legislator, seems to be in the strongest position.
I would peg Iowa as Democrats’ 5th best opportunity to flip a Senate seat, right after Ohio. If we somehow knew at this moment that Democrats ended up flipping Iowa, it would be safe to say that they had won a Senate majority.
Rating: Leans Republican
Maine:
As the bluest state (by far) on this list, Maine occupies an unusual place in the 2026 midterms. If anyone other than Susan Collins was defending this Senate seat, Maine would be the easiest state for Democrats to flip. Instead, it is entirely possible that Collins will once again outperform Maine’s partisanship, as she did in 2020, when both she and Biden won the state by about 9 percentage points (though her winning margin was only about 6 points after the ranked-choice voting tabulation).
If Democrats had been able to recruit Jared Golden (D), who represents the rural, redder half of Maine in the House, this Senate race would lean towards Democrats. However, Golden is retiring altogether, and he was perhaps uninterested in running against Collins, anyway.
There has already been a fierce Democratic primary between Janet Mills, who is finishing her second term as Maine’s governor, and Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and veteran. My own expectation is that Mills, the establishment favorite, will ultimately win the nomination, but there’s some real uncertainty, and Maine’s primary is not until June.
Maine will be a test of how far the twin forces of nationalization and polarization have transformed American politics. It might be that in 2026, even with her long history of overperforming, Collins simply cannot overcome Maine’s Democratic lean.
Rating: Tossup
Michigan:
At the beginning of 2025, Gary Peters (D) announced that he would not be running for a third Senate term. What followed has been an unusually open race, with multiple Democrats and Republicans running for the nomination.
Michigan has become one of the most evenly divided states at the presidential level, and until we know the final matchup, it is genuinely hard to rate this Senate race. But in the context of a midterm year such as 2026, I think we should see Michigan’s Senate race as leaning towards Democrats, simply because of the environment.
If, down the road, polling shows a close race, then I might push Michigan to a tossup. But for now, with what we know about the usual midterm pattern, Democrats should be able to defend this seat, though not as easily as if Gary Peters had decided to run for another term.
Rating: Leans Democratic
Minnesota:
Tina Smith (D), who first won her Senate seat in a special election in 2018, will be retiring after this year, leaving Minnesota with an open Senate seat.
The main Democrats vying for the nomination are Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan. At the beginning of February, Tina Smith endorsed Flanagan, which came as a surprise, though we still have a ways to go until the August primary. On the Republican side, there is already a surprisingly large field, which strikes me as a little unusual, given how difficult flipping this Senate seat would be (Republicans have not won statewide in Minnesota since 2006).
Minnesota might be best thought of as a consistently light blue state, one that tends to vote slightly to the left of the country as a whole in national elections. If this Senate seat were up for election in a presidential year, I would probably rate it as a tossup. But in a midterm year such as 2026, which will very likely be favorable to Democrats, there’s little reason to expect this seat to flip to Republicans.
Rating: Likely Democratic
Montana:
Call me bold for having Montana on this list, but I don’t think its Senate seat is 100% safe for Republicans this fall. Honestly, it’s not even the toughest Senate race for Democrats on this list (Florida or Texas have that honor).
Yes, it’s true, Montana was a Trump +20 state in 2024. However, what’s unique about Montana is that it has a history of electing Democratic Senators, and as recently as 2014, both of its Senators were Democrats. In 2024, Jon Tester (D) lost, but he overperformed by 13 points relative to Kamala Harris, which was very impressive, as overperformances of that magnitude have become quite rare.
I could envision Montana’s Senate race being decided by 5 to 10 points this fall, which means that Steve Daines (R) cannot take his race entirely for granted. One wildcard that might make the race closer than expected: Montana’s Democratic Party could decide to support an independent nominee (specifically, Seth Bodnar, who recently stepped down as president of the University of Montana).
Rating: Likely Republican
Nebraska:
In 2024, the most impressive Senate overperformance (besides Larry Hogan in Maryland) came from Nebraska’s Dan Osborn, who ran as an independent. He lost to Deb Fischer (R) by under 7 points.
By pure chance, Nebraska had two Senate races in 2024, which gave us a rare opportunity to compare Osborn’s performance to a Democrat who ran on the same ballot. That Democrat lost to Pete Ricketts, the Republican who will be up for election again this fall, by 25 points.
In other words, Osborn far exceeded expectations, and last spring, he announced that he would run again in 2026. For now, it seems that Nebraska’s Democratic Party will stand aside and support Osborn, as it had done in 2024.
Even if Osborn ends up losing, it would be hard to imagine the race being a landslide for Republicans, as is usually the case in Nebraska.
Rating: Leans Republican
New Hampshire:
Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen, who first won this Senate seat in 2008, will be retiring after this year. New Hampshire has an unusually late primary, and we won’t know until September who the nominees are.
Chris Pappas, the Democrat who currently represents the eastern half of the state in the House, seems very likely to get his party’s nomination. On the Republican side, John Sununu appears to be in a stronger position than Scott Brown, who lost to Shaheen in 2014.
In terms of partisanship, New Hampshire is fairly similar to Minnesota. At the presidential level, both states were nearly tied in 2016, went for Biden by about 7 points in 2020, and then voted for Harris by a few points apiece in 2024. There are political environments in which a Senate race in New Hampshire would be a tossup, but 2026 is just not shaping up to be one of those years.
Rating: Likely Democratic
North Carolina:
Ever since Roy Cooper (D) announced last summer that he was running for Senate in 2026, North Carolina has been the clearest pickup opportunity for Democrats. Cooper is a former governor who won in 2016 and 2020, and he is essentially the ideal candidate for Democrats in this Trump +3 state.
Thom Tillis (R), who first won this Senate seat in 2014, might have put up a good fight had he decided to run again in 2026, but he will be retiring after this year. As an open seat without a Republican incumbent, this should be a relatively easy flip for Democrats, though as with most southern states, North Carolina has a fairly polarized electorate. What that means is that Cooper, though in a good position to win, could still see a somewhat close race.
Rating: Leans Democratic
Ohio:
For several months now, Democrats have known that their Senate nominee in Ohio will almost certainly be Sherrod Brown. As a former three-term Senator who only narrowly lost re-election in 2024, he is basically the perfect candidate to make this a competitive race.
Brown will be running against Jon Husted this fall, who is arguably a stronger opponent than Bernie Moreno from 2024. If we had a Brown-Moreno rematch, I would consider this a tossup, as Brown only lost by 4 points in what was roughly an R+2 year, and this fall should be at least 6 points more Democratic than 2024. Even though Husted will be a tougher opponent, Brown still has a decent chance of winning.
Remember, regardless of who wins, this Senate seat will be up for election again in 2028.
Rating: Leans Republican
South Carolina:
Including South Carolina on here was a very borderline decision, given the state’s partisanship, and the fact that it has been decades since a Democrat won statewide office in the Palmetto State.
Even with that in mind, I’ll confess that I’ve been keeping an eye on South Carolina since early last year, and Democrats have a chance of giving Lindsey Graham (R) a much closer Senate race than he’s had in almost 20 years.
I wouldn’t say that Graham is an overly strong incumbent, and Democrats have an interesting candidate in Annie Andrews, a doctor who ran for a House seat in the Charleston area in 2022. The primary is not until June, however.
As with quite a few other states on this list, I could easily envision Democrats making this a single-digit race, which would be impressive, but ultimately, it’s just very hard to imagine this Senate race ending in a Democratic victory.
Rating: Likely Republican
Texas:
More so than any other state on this list, we need to know who wins each party’s nomination in Texas before we can truly assess its Senate race. For example, if Ken Paxton (R) found himself facing James Talarico (D) this fall, I might push this race closer to Democrats. Thankfully, Texas has a very early primary (March 3rd), so it won’t be long until we find out who Republicans and Democrats nominate.
But more generally, Texas occupies a similar place as Florida: it’s a truly difficult state for Democrats to win. Unlike a few of the other very Republican states on this list, such as Montana and Nebraska, Texas has not had a Democratic Senator in a long, long time (not since the early 1990s, if you must know).
Rating: Likely Republican
Overall, I think Democrats can reasonably expect to flip anywhere from two to four Senate seats this fall. That is, of course, a wide range, with two flips bringing Democrats to 49 Senate seats, three flips producing a 50-50 Senate, and four giving Democrats an outright majority (I’m assuming that Democrats successfully defend all of their own seats).
The easiest path to a Senate majority for Democrats runs through North Carolina, Alaska, Maine, and Ohio, in roughly that order. If you forced me to predict what this fall will bring, I would say that Democrats winning those first three states seems very plausible right now (Ohio is perhaps a bridge too far). That would mean a 50-50 Senate starting in 2027.
If needed, I’ll adjust these ratings down the road, but generally, we have a good sense of where things stand, even now. We already know from 2024 the partisanship of these states, and in some ways, that’s the single most important piece of information we need for assessing these races, given how correlated presidential and Senate voting have become.
By all means, feel free to share your thoughts on any of these Senate races. I really do welcome comments, and especially if you disagree with any of these ratings, let’s hear it!
What leads you to say Mills is poised to win nomination? With Platner’s fundraising I’d surmise it’s at best a tossup. Also, I think Collin’s 2020 win is better seen as a ~6% margin given RCV
Thune is a coward who will do as he is told to do by his orange god.